Sprint Capacity Planning Techniques
How do you calculate sprint capacity when you have PTO, meetings, support rotation, and other non-development work eating into available hours? Our commitments are always wrong.
Use focus factor. Calculate: (Actual productive hours) / (Total hours available). For us it's 0.6 - meaning 60% of time goes to development, 40% to meetings, support, etc.
Then: Team size × Sprint days × Daily hours × Focus factor = Capacity hours. Or if you use points: Historical velocity × Focus factor = This sprint capacity. Adjust focus factor quarterly based on actuals.
Account for known PTO upfront. If 2 out of 6 devs are out, that's 33% capacity reduction. Don't fudge it. Also buffer 20% for unknowns (sick days, production fires). Better to under-promise and over-deliver than constantly miss commitments.
Track 'yesterday's weather' - use last sprint's actual completed points as this sprint's capacity. Simplest method and surprisingly accurate over time. Automatically accounts for all the stuff that eats into capacity.
Separate commitment from stretch goals. Commit to 70% of calculated capacity. Identify stretch stories for the other 30%. If everything goes well, you hit stretch goals. If not, you still hit commitments. Manages stakeholder expectations way better.